US Non-Farm and Non-Manufacturing Figures On Tap
Posted on 05. Dec, 2007 by admin in Forex News, Market Snapshot, Technical Analysis
Economic News
USD
Yesterday was void of any significant news from the U.S, so the greenback did not experience much movement against the EUR. However the greenback did strengthen noticeably against the CAD on the back of the unexpected Canadian interest rate cut to 4.25%. The main market movement yesterday was still driven by comments by the Fed that the subprime crisis will have a significant drawback on U.S growth. This attitude by the Fed has unsettled the financial markets again and shoved global stocks lower, leading to a risk-averse attitude by investors and a subsequent reversal of carry trades. Therefore the USD saw most of its action yesterday against the high yielding currencies, where it gained noticeable ground on the back of the carry trade reversal. On the other hand the greenback lost ground against the JPY as the increasing concerns about the credit crisis prompted investors to cut back on risky positions.
Looking ahead, today is filled with significant U.S data which may prompt some dollar movement. The most important news out today will be the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change which is expected to release well below its previous figure of 106K at 50K. This figure will be closely watched by investors for an indication of where Friday’s all important NFP report will release, even though the accuracy of the ADP remains questionable. If this figure surprises on the upside the dollar could claw back some lost ground against the EUR. However although there is a string of data releases expected today it seems that the market will remain cautious ahead of Friday’s NFP report, but is also important to note that the increasing speculation of an aggressive rate cut by the Fed could shove the greenback onto its recently familiar slippery slope.
EUR
The only news released from the Eurozone yesterday was the PPI which came in at 0.6%, beating the expected figure 0.4%. However this news was not expected, and it did not, have any impact on the EUR. The EUR remained stable against the USD, but it did experience sharp movement against the high yielders and the JPY on the back of the carry trade reversal. Investors will be tentative of ahead of Thursday’s ECB Interest Rate Decision, which is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 4.00%. However this will be a very tricky decision by the ECB as Trichet has reiterated over-and-over again that short term inflation risks are still on the upside and therefore the ECB are currently struggling to balance slower growth with higher inflation. A rate cut by the ECB at this stage is unlikely, as although it will stimulate Eurozone growth it could spike inflation which is already a major concern.
In the Eurozone news today we are expecting the Retail Sales, Services PMI and German Services PMI figures. These figures could cause some movement but investors will be cautious to buy the EUR ahead of Thursday’s difficult ECB decision. The current sentiment surrounding the EUR remains positive but when the full impact of the U.S housing crisis on the Eurozone will be revealed, this sentiment could change quickly.
JPY
The JPY continued to gain all across the board yesterday as the increasing concerns over the credit turmoil has driven investors away from the so-called carry trade strategy. The JPY bounced back from a two week low against the greenback on the back of an announcement by Moody’s that it was preparing the largest credit-rating cuts since the subprime crisis shook the financial markets. The stress in the credit markets is continuing and it does not seem that there is relief in sight, so the JPY will continue to get stronger as risk aversion persists. The JPY rose to 110. 22 against the greenback from Friday’s 111.12, and it may even hit 109.00 by the end of the month if risk aversion persists.
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Technical News
EUR/USD
On the 4 Hour chart, we should note that the bearish trend continues to push forward as volatility is increasing. The price should continue to move downwards to a range of 1.4800 to 1.4650. As it stands, the bearish pressure will continue to gather momentum on the EUR/USD today as well.
GBP/USD
On the 4 Hour chart, a rising wedge (bearish) is forming which may imply a continuation of the bearish momentum. It’s recommended to time the entrance into market with short term charts as 2.0650 looks to be a possible strong entry point. At the moment GPB/USD is being traded at around the 2.0750 to 2.0450 range. The volatility is high and we should expect to see bearish pressure today on the GBP. The downtrend should continue to the 2.0500 support level.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY broke the 109.60 resistance level yesterday. USD/JPY is in a downtrend trend, supported by 1 Hour exponential moving averages as volatility is low and Bollinger bands are tightened. We should expect to see throughout the day, a continuation of the bearish configuration correction for this pair. 1 Hour and 4 Hour Elliott patterns imply that the USD/JPY will continue to gather momentum. The target is expected at 110.00 for today, as it is recommended to take in to consideration the long run weakness of the Japanese currency against the American Dollar for future positions.
USD/CHF
The USD/CHF is in a bearish configuration as volatility is decreasing. USD/CHF moves without trend and swings around exponential moving average (EMA 50 and 100). Bollinger bands are tightened and 1 Hour and 4 Hour Elliott patterns imply a continuation of the bearish pressure on the currency pair. The target is expected to touch in and around the 1.1130 level.
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