ADP Non-Farm Payrolls On Tap
Posted on 04. Apr, 2008 by admin in Forex Market, Forex News, Market Snapshot, Technical Analysis
Economic News
USD
The USD has rebounded over last few days leading up to today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. Fed Chairman Bernanke said on Wednesday that the U.S. economy may fall into recession in the first half of 2008, although he was less pessimistic than expected, which led investors to scale down expectations for aggressive monetary easing. Interest Rate expectations for the FOMC meeting at the end of this month have been strongly diverted in favor of a 25bp vs. 50bp cut. According to Interest Rate Futures Contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade, traders saw yesterday a 20% chance that the Fed will cut rates by half a percentage point, compared with 42% odds a week ago.
The greenback weakened about 1% from yesterday’s highs vs. the EUR after the U.S. Labor Department said Initial Jobless Claims increased by 38K last week to 407K, the highest since September 2005. The USD traded at $1.5661 per EUR at 4:00 p.m. in Tokyo, after touching a one-week high of $1.5511 yesterday.
Although markets have grown more optimistic about the U.S. economy in recent days, investors do not seem to believe that the present financial turmoil is coming to an end. Concerns about the U.S. economy still remain high. Data showing first time applications for U.S. Unemployment rose last week to a 2.5 year high, keeping the greenback under pressure ahead of a today’s Payrolls report. According to the median forecast, U.S. Payrolls probably shrank by 50,000 last month. The last time the economy lost jobs for at least 3 straight months was in 2003, at the onset of the Iraq War.
Dollar trading should stay calm today until the release of Non-Farm Payrolls, where will likely see volatile behavior. If Payrolls return with positive results, expect dollar bullishness to continue up until the close of the markets.
EUR
Yesterday, the EUR weakened vs. the USD as mounting signs of stress in Europe’s banking and retail sectors raised fears that the credit crisis was starting to slowdown the Euro-zone economy. By the late afternoon, the EUR was down 0.1% at 1.5662, though it had recovered nearly all the ground lost since touching a $1.5511 session low in overnight trade.
In recent history, the European economy has posted steady growth, even as the housing-led credit crisis has slowed the U.S. growth and sparked fears of economic recession. That doesn’t seem to be the case anymore as Retail Sales for the region as a whole dropped 0.5% in February while Service Sector PMI was revised down modestly. A surprise decline in Retail Sales and news that a German lender’s subprime related write-downs were double its forecast, underscored a slowdown in the region and added to pressure for Interest Rate cuts. Along with this, we should also remember that it is unlikely for the ECB to start cutting rates before the Fed brings its own Interest Rates down, to the lowest possible level.
Investors are also getting more cautious about the risks of a weakening in the EUR ahead of upcoming G7 and International Monetary Fund meetings, which will look toward further aid for the Greenback.
There is no significant economic news coming out of Europe today, so it will be crucial for traders to identify how the preceding U.S. economic indicators will affect the European currency. Traders should closely follow the U.S. Nonfarm Employment Change figures, as well as Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings from the U.S. markets.
JPY
The JPY was little changed yesterday against the USD. By the end of the Tokyo trading session, the JPY was down 0.1% at 102.35. The EUR moved lower vs. the Yen as the single currency tested bids around the 159.30 level and was capped around the 161.05 level.
Also yesterday, the BoJ released a survey that reported Consumer’s Economic Sentiment worsened to its lowest level since March 2003. This report followed Monday’s very weak Tankan survey of Corporate Sentiment.
Though investors are waiting for today’s U.S. jobs data, they are also turning their eyes towards the Japanese government which seems to be in absolutely no rush to find a new Bank of Japan Governor. Although the P.M. Fukuda indicated that a candidate will be announced shortly, the Japanese need to find someone who is agreeable to both parties. Fukuda government reported it is trying to nominate a suitable successor to become the Governor of the BoJ by next week’s Group of Seven meetings in Washington.
The Japanese economic calendar has been devoid of any significant data over the past days and this will remain the same for the next 24 hours.
It is very likely that the JPY will continue to range trading until next week, barring any overwhelming financial news.
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Technical News
EUR/USD
The pair is in a tight consolidation phase at around 1.5660. The daily chart is showing mixed signals and a double doji formation which indicates that the breach might come from both directions. The 4 hour chart is showing moderate bearish momentum, and it appears that the best strategy for today might be to swing in after the break.
GBP/USD
There is a very distinct pattern forming on the 4 hour slow stochastic chart in the shape of a triple top with positive slope. This is a very strong bullish indication that is supported by the daily chart as well, which shows strong bullish momentum. Going long might be the wise move today.
USD/JPY
The 4 hour chart is showing a stable and consistent bullish trend that shows no signs of stopping any time soon. The slow stochastic is showing no crosses which means that the bullish momentum will most probably continue locally. Going long with tight stops might be the right way to go today.
USD/CHF
There are no distinct patterns on both the daily and the hourly charts. Mixed signals are being given from both, and it appears that the pair’s next move is quite vague. It would be preferable for traders to wait for a clear sign before approaching this pair today.
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